[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 022059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022058 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-022300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...ERN CO...NWRN KS...AND FAR SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022058Z - 022300Z

DRY MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BASED STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATED
LOCALIZED/ISOLATED NATURE OF WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW.


HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES
IN CO/WY WILL TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 20KT DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN
EXTREME SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT EXTREME EVAPORATION POTENTIAL IN DOWNDRAFTS AND LOCALIZED
DRY MICROBURSTS ACROSS SERN WY/ERN CO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING EWD ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR FROM
LIC TO GLD AND NEWD TOWARD MCK IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP-MIXING AND
INCREASING CUMULUS CONVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
AXIS FROM FAR ERN CO TO SWRN NEB MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
DRY MICROBURST OR TWO. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CAPPING
FURTHER EAST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST ACTIVITY ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF WIND POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

38810504 39740538 40500560 41530590 42020585 42380581
42530503 42300377 40650354 40180332 40000242 40030182
40340138 40360026 40030006 39200015 38910077 38290382
38380483 

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