[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 022046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022046 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-022315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN ND AND NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022046Z - 022315Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY SHORTLY.

AIR MASS CONTINUES RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
ACROSS THE AREA AS MLCAPE VALUES ARE NW 3500 J/KG.  BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 25 KT INTO S CENTRAL ND. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
WITH CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ACROSS ERN ND AND LATEST RUC MODEL
INDICATING THAT MLCAPE WILL BE 4500 J/KG BY 2100Z...WOULD ANTICIPATE
ACTIVITY OVER S CENTRAL TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE 7.8 TO 8.5C/KM INDICATING TH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

ACTIVITY COULD THEN BECOME PART OF EARLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN AS 60 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK COMES
ACROSS SRN MT ENHANCING UVVS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45979957 46249963 46729978 47230026 47710085 48280135
48920117 48949911 48769749 47939694 47239709 46429702
45529695 44919725 44829846 45299945 45739947 

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