[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021954 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-022230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN MT INTO SWRN ND AND NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021954Z - 022230Z

MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR OR
SO.

ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS HAVE
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL MT THE PAST HOUR OR
SO.  ANALYSIS OF RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA SHOWING LCL'S AND LFC'S
BETWEEN 6K AND 7K AGL. MLCAPE CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE WITH VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG.  GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE JUST
ABOVE 8C/KM AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE 30-35 DEG F...THE
THREAT FOR HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS EXISTS WITH THESE STORMS.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

45260960 45760952 46180909 46770755 47040577 47120307
46240224 45330207 44800216 44340267 44780442 44950784
45000946 45260964 

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