[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 021759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021758 
LAZ000-TXZ000-021930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL TX AND WRN/CENTRAL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578...

VALID 021758Z - 021930Z

CONTINUE WW. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS
W-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL LA.  

FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD POOL
WILL CONTINUE ESEWD/25-30KT ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES OF ERN
TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL LA THROUGH 02/20Z. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF MCS...WITH STRONG INSOLATION
RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 90F. FURTHER...VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL
TX TO CENTRAL LA...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUATION OF MCS.
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT STRONGLY SHEARED IN THE VERTICAL...WITH SFC-6KM
VALUES OF ONLY 15-20KT. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED WITH WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH STRONGER CELLS.
HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AND CONVECTIVE MODE SUGGEST LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

..BANACOS.. 07/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

30699461 30989511 31479504 32099481 32379460 32559432
32549357 32499294 32259206 31939185 31309182 30809184
30459192 30279198 30229239 

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