[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020947 
TXZ000-NMZ000-021115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN TX AND FAR ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020947Z - 021115Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY WITHIN THE LBB COUNTY
WARNING AREA OF WEST TX...BUT THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND WWD INTO FAR
ERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING.  ISOLATED THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A WW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN TX.  AT 0930Z...THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM JUST E OF CDS SWWD TO JUST N OF LBB AND THEN NWWD TO
THE NE OF CVS. DURING THE LAST HOUR...THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED
25 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH INDICATES THIS NEW
ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED.  THESE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCATED 50-100 MILES TO THE S AND SW
FROM ERN NM TO SW TX ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY.  A 35-40 KT SSWLY
LLJ NOSING INTO WRN TX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME...AT WHICH TIME THIS LLJ SHOULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH.  UNTIL THEN...MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW
AIR COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES SHOULD AT LEAST
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

..PETERS.. 07/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

33800326 34430336 34800306 34980211 34660122 34020073
33090058 32810075 32630212 32750297 

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