[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020632
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020632 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND PARTS OF WRN AND SWRN
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 576...

VALID 020632Z - 020700Z

PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND PARTS OF WRN/SWRN OK
BEING CONSIDERED FOR A NEW WW BY 07Z.

06Z SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED A CONFLUENCE ZONE SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER BETWEEN SPS AND ABI EXTENDING NWWD TO THE TX
PANHANDLE.  REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS NEAR/
WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONFLUENCE...WITH THE SRN MOST COMPLEX OVER
THROCKMORTON TO CALLAHAN COUNTIES TX APPEARING TO BE UNDERGOING
RE-ORGANIZATION INTO A POTENTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS.  45 KT OF
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW PER AREA VAD/WIND PROFILERS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION.  COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT FORWARD MOTION.

MEANWHILE...A SECOND FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH A LEADING BOW ECHO
NOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WAS MOVING TO THE SE AT 35-40
KT...AND PRODUCED A 45 KT WIND GUST AT GUY AT 0511Z.  COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS MCS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE INFLOW
ENVIRONMENT PER 35 KT SELY LLJ AT AMA AND DEEP ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OK IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SEWD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

CONCERN EXISTS AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF TX PANHANDLE BOW AFTER ITS
INTERACTION WITH ONGOING STORMS BETWEEN CDS-LTS.  LARGE SCALE
ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF MODERATE TO STRONG WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP
PERSISTENT SSELY LLJ WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
AND NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS.. 07/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

36970328 37000194 37970050 38039999 36789916 34719885
33529815 32849721 31789676 31059739 31820047 33310082
34180149 36040328 

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