[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012302 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-020030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MT / WRN ND / NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012302Z - 020030Z

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE SLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS ATTM...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHIFTING ACROSS ERN MT WHICH SHOULD MERGE WITH LEE
TROUGH SHORTLY.  AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH...LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE/...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW
STORMS TO INCREASE WITH TIME.

THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ATTM...WLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 
THUS...AS WIND FIELD INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPS...EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO -- TO LIKEWISE INCREASE.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..GOSS.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

49030489 49110275 48990199 47820115 45240103 44820316
45070424 45710449 47200464 

WWWW