[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012324 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-020130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL NC...CENTRAL SC...AND ERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 012324Z - 020130Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
NC AND SC SWWD INTO ERN GA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WHICH INITIALLY FORMED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ERN GA. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT...AND STRONG HEATING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3500 J/KG IN
REMAINING UNMODIFIED AIR MASS IN SC/GA. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN APPALACHIANS LEE TROUGH AND MODERATE WLY SHEAR IS RESULTING
IN WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ALONG CONVECTIVELY GENERATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
DURING NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH WET MICROBURSTS.

LARGE STORM CLUSTER NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER MOVING EWD AT 5-10KT WILL
YIELD A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BANDS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY EXTEND NNEWD INTO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...ALONG WITH NRN EXTENT
OF MOIST AXIS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2". WSR-88D DERIVED HOURLY
PRECIPITATION RATES OF AROUND 3"/HR ARE EVIDENT FROM CAE AND RDU.

..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

33738335 34228239 34878094 35588019 35397814 34687853
33917908 33248010 32838094 32588149 32588223 32598281
32668318 33028350 

WWWW