[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012250 
MTZ000-WYZ000-020015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT / NRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012250Z - 020015Z

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. THOUGH IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED / ISOLATED...WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY EARLY
EVENING.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REMAINS FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT ACROSS MT AND
VICINITY...THOUGH LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE STATE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. 

ABOVE THE SURFACE...FLOW REMAINS VEERED / WLY AND THUS DOWNSLOPE. 
THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD / SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.

HAVING SAID THAT...WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WHICH HAS EXISTED ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD...AS VORT MAX NOW APPROACHING
VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUES EWD TOWARD MT.  THIS COMBINED WITH MORE
MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN MT MAY ALLOW CONVECTION NOW
MOVING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME.  WITH 35
TO 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS EXISTS.  THOUGH NEGATIVE FACTORS
MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS /
HAIL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS
REGION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

46491185 47331102 47500963 47310635 46950425 45010478
43840642 44821089 

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