[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012159 
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-012330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...ERN PA...NJ...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572...

VALID 012159Z - 012330Z

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S...

WW 572 CONTINUES ACROSS ERN/NERN NY INTO WRN/NWRN NEW ENGLAND.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER ERN NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH QUEBEC AND SRN PERIPHERY OF
ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE FORCING. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
EXTEND EWD TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE ERN EXTENT
OF SVR WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT PER
ALB AND BTV VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGEST CONTINUED THREAT OF LONG-LIVED
CONVECTIVE CELLS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND WRN MA/CT WHERE POCKETS OF UNMODIFIED...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AIR REMAIN. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...REMAINING INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME LIMITED AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL WANE. 

SEPARATE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NJ SWWD INTO THE
PHI METRO AREA WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 20-25KT. AREAS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ REMAIN ACROSS
S-CENTRAL NJ AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS
DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER IN THIS
REGION...AROUND 20KT PER DIX VAD WIND PROFILE. ORIENTATION OF
CONVECTION SUGGESTS HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BURLINGTON...OCEAN...AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING CELLS. 

FURTHER WEST...SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS W-CENTRAL PA JUST IN ADVANCE
OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY EWD. AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL IS POSSIBLE...
HOWEVER...DECREASING INSOLATION AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
THIS ACTIVITY GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ADDITIONAL WW/S ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION GIVEN EXPECTED EVOLUTION.

..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

43757525 44507487 44927450 45007336 44957148 44417174
43157198 42597217 41187319 40527365 39917396 39597422
39457491 39547528 39727565 40237605 40957619 41757608 

WWWW