[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012004 
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-012200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...SWD THRU ERN PA/NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572...

VALID 012004Z - 012200Z

CONTINUE WW 572...NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO THE EAST WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT PAST COUPLE OF HOURS EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS...SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE.  SEA BREEZE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF NEW
YORK CITY.  ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST/INCREASE IN INCREASINGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS MOSTLY LIKELY NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA...ON TAIL END
OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE/FILL IN THROUGH THE
21-22Z TIME FRAME...POSING BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT/WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHWEST
CONNECTICUT...THEREAFTER.

..KERR.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

44027447 45047444 45277281 44167225 42997264 41797394
41827466 43087451 43737451 

WWWW