[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011944 
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-012145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...AND THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011944Z - 012145Z

AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OFF THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE REGION FROM SERN CO SWD THROUGH
NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLES OF TX/OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. 

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 1915Z INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR TAD SSWWD TO NEAR LVS. THIS REGION LIES ON SRN
PERIPHERY OF MODERATE 500MB FLOW BETWEEN THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER
SRN NM/AZ AND THE BAROCLINIC WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW OVER SWRN TX AND SFC LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ERN MT TO ERN CO SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODERATE INSTABILITY /100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM INTO FAR WRN TX...AND SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS CONTRIBUTING TO WNWLY
SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT. THIS SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS AS UPDRAFTS MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND INSTABILITY
AXIS. THESE FACTORS IN ADDITION TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
/7-8C/KM/ SHOULD SUPPORT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

33910364 34090500 35450529 36000531 37640444 37610233
35710213 33840212 

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