[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011817 
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-012015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD...WRN NEB...NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011817Z - 012015Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY TOPPING CREST OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...SUPPORTING
ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...AND AREAS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS BECOMING FOCUSED NEAR LEE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WHERE STRONGEST
DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...WITH FURTHER INCREASE LIKELY
THROUGH PEAK HEATING. 

NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR NOW THROUGH 21Z
NEAR/EAST OF SCOTTSBLUFF...WITH A GRADUAL SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATION THEREAFTER.  VEERING WIND FIELDS FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
MODERATE WESTERLY WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY IN
ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES.

..KERR.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

43920344 43960247 43040159 41220071 40460096 39460302
39400405 41260384 

WWWW