[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011730 
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-011830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CHAMPLAIN VLY THRU ERN NY/NE PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011730Z - 011830Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE.

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...EAST OF A SARANAC LAKE/BINGHAMTON LINE
INTO THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND VALUES MAY APPROACH 2000 J/KG
BY PEAK HEATING...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS STILL EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT BELT OF MODERATE /30-40 KT/
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TROUGH IS BEGINNING
TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK.  AS THIS REGIME
DEVELOPS EASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS...STRENGTHENING SHEAR IN
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. 
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGEST
STORMS...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH BY
20-21Z.

..KERR.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

44957274 44037326 43077381 42217441 41487482 41467624
42107653 42867599 44857512 

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