[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011710 
TXZ000-011915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011710Z - 011915Z

ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. WW IS NOT PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS OF STORMS.  

RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED AND STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
45W ABI TO 10SE MWL TO 50E DAL WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWD AT
AROUND 20KT THROUGH REMAINDER OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN TX DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /100MB MLCAPE VALUES 2500-3500
J/KG/. THE RELATIVE DRY LAYER APPARENT IN 12Z FTW SOUNDING FROM
750-600MB IS LIKELY ENHANCING EVAPORATION IN DOWNDRAFTS WITH DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. WEAK LOW-LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL
PROVIDE MODEST INFLOW AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...
HOWEVER...SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT.
THUS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LOCALIZED...AND ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER CORES AS THEY PROGRESS
GENERALLY SSEWD WITH MOTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...SJT...

32349905 32709805 32919695 33009618 33059550 33059476
32669430 32289412 31829422 31379471 31239613 31199746
31259839 31559913 32089931 

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