[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011549 
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...CENTRAL/NRN AL...FAR NWRN GA...AND
CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011549Z - 011745Z

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FROM MIDDLE/ERN TN SWWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL AL AND INTO ERN
MS. AN ISOLATED OR LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
IS ANTICIPATED WITH STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THIS REGION. 

AT 1545Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CELLS WERE DEVELOPING
ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY DECAYING MCS OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
ESEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN...NRN AL...AND ERN MS...WHERE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SURFACE HEATING
CONTINUES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
TSTM INITIATION.  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
INSTABILITY...AS SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS.
ADDITIONALLY...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LAYER EVIDENT ON JAN AND BMX
SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z MAY LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE IN PLACE AT BNA /850-500MB LAPSE RATE OF
7C/KM/...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND GREATER SEVERE
THREAT ALONG NRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN
TN...NRN AL...AND FAR NWRN GA. SCATTERED PULSE TYPE STORMS...OR
SMALL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...APPEAR PROBABLE WITH BRIEF DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES THROUGH AFTERNOON.

..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

33578961 33968896 34668781 35588695 36008673 36598608
36578498 36558379 35888413 34988481 34218545 33508601
33158651 32878674 32778745 32708934 32759031 

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