[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011455 
TXZ000-OKZ000-011600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571...

VALID 011455Z - 011600Z

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 571 MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.

STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS...MAINLY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF WEAK WAVE
ALONG CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROGRESSED
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS HEATING
IN BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF OUTFLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO CAPE IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...PROSPECTS FOR CONTINUING DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE MID DAY HOURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK
FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  FLOW/SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE WEAK...BUT RISK OF
GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS APPROACHING AREAS NEAR/NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AT LEAST ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO.

..KERR.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34189611 34669558 33709453 33229420 32989522 32939621
32639754 33599741 33999676 

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