[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010432 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-010630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO/SW KS INTO THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 010432Z - 010630Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL LIKELY TO DEVELOP/SHIFT SEWD
OVERNIGHT INTO SW KS AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES.

NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SUPERCELL OVER SRN
PROWERS/NRN BACA COUNTIES CO AT 0430Z -- WITH HISTORY OF LARGE
HAIL/ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS -- EXPECTED TO CONTINUING TRANSITIOING
SEWD INTO FAR SW KS/OK PANHANDLE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE AS WELL. STRONG POST-FRONTAL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50
KTS OR GREATER WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
COMBINED WITH STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG -- PER 03Z RUC SOUNDINGS -- AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF APPROX 8.0 C/KM WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...

38410265 37910149 37130035 36340028 35990187 36640271
37620335 38040322 

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