[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010612 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-010645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN-SERN KS/SRN MO/NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568...

VALID 010612Z - 010645Z

NEW WW/S BEING CONSIDERED FOR NRN OK AND NRN AR.

THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VALID
PORTIONS OF WW 568 ACROSS SERN KS INTO SWRN MO.

05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN OK
WSWWD ACROSS NRN OK TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW IN WRN
TN...STRETCHED WNWWD FROM NEAR MEM TO SOUTH OF FYV IN NWRN AR TO
NERN OK. 20 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM WRN TX TO NERN OK IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN MCS LOCATED OVER SERN KS/SWRN MO...WITH NEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LIKELY ALONG THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERIES OF THIS COMPLEX. 
STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOIST/ MODERATELY UNSTABLE
INFLOW PER LLJ WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

FARTHER WNW...ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN INTO
NRN OK AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AS AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN KS THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SIMILAR KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
TO AREAS FARTHER EAST SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
AS NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NRN OK.

..PETERS.. 07/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

38349665 38259463 37959287 37039144 36139084 35409150
35389382 35509623 35829857 36009980 36340036 37230014
37669767 

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