[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301238 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-301645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/MD/SERN PA/SRN NJ/DE

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 301238Z - 301645Z

FZRA WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ICING POSSIBLE.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WOUND UP UPPER LOW RAPIDLY
PROGRESSING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH TROUGH AXIS NOW EAST OF
ROANOKE PER LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA. THIS IS FASTER THAN THE
06Z ETA...SO PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM CONVEYOR IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO ERN NC/SERN VA...WHERE SFC
TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO IT IS ALL RAIN. FARTHER NORTH IN
NRN VA/MD/DE...PRECIPITATION WHICH HAD BEEN FZRA RAIN ALL
NIGHT...HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW OR A SNOW/SLEET MIX. 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM ROANOKE SHOWS WARM LAYER HAS BEEN ERODED...AND THE 12Z
STERLING VA SOUNDING SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM THE 06Z RUN. LOCATIONS IN SRN NJ/ERN SHORE OF MD SHOULD QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WHEN COOLER MID LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES.

ASIDE FROM THE LEADING BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NOW EXTENDING
FROM MD/ERN VA/ERN NC...THE ONLY OTHER THREAT FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE COMMA HEAD IT MOVES THROUGH. RECENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING JUST EAST OF ROANOKE...WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT NOTED ON IR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACCELERATED
SO MUCH THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING.

..TAYLOR.. 01/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

40337522 39757778 38577810 37907756 37547651 37917581
38187461 39417406 40467401 

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