[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300659 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-301300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SC/INTERIOR NC/VA/ERN WV/MD/SRN PA/SRN NJ/DE

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN/WINTER PRECIPITATION TRENDS 

VALID 300659Z - 301300Z

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS/PORTIONS
OF VA OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING. IN ADDITION...A MIX OF
SLEET/FZRA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF MD/NJ/DE/WV.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER SHORTWAVE ACROSS ERN
KY...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NW WV BY 12Z. COOLING CLOUD TYPES ON IR
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE IS BEING REALIZED AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE AS NOTED ON 06Z SOUNDING FROM GSO WHICH
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH 30-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING MOIST
HIGHER THETA-E NWD. AT THE SFC...WEDGE OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH SFC FREEZING LINE FROM
NEAR ATLANTA TO NW OF CHARLESTON SC TO RAH/RIC. SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT
SFC TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...MODERATE FZRA WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS/VA. 

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FOR GA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST UVV BEING FOCUSED OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND CNTRL VA. SPECIAL 06Z SOUNDING FROM STERLING VA DID CHANGE A
LITTLE FROM THE 02Z RUN...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING NOTED AROUND 850MB.
SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS AND MOST OF DE
INDICATE FZRA AND/OR SLEET THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS AN
INDICATION THAT THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT IS MELTING OR PARTIALLY
MELTING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT /PER 40 KT SW WINDS FROM 06Z
STERLING SOUNDING /...THE TREND OF PRIMARILY FZRA WITH SLEET WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS AGREES WITH THE NCEP SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLE MOST LIKELY PTYPE USING THE BALDWIN ALGORITHM.

06Z SOUNDING FROM GSO SHOWS A DEEP WARM INVERSION...WHICH WILL
ENSURE THAT FZRA WILL BE THE DOMINANT PTYPE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES/HOUR LIKELY. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FROM WRN MD/PA AND SRN NJ ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS
MOSTLY LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SLEET.

..TAYLOR.. 01/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CAE...GSP...

40187523 40347762 40397826 40167955 39778030 39508043
39028024 38378050 36318167 34838305 33848160 35127858
37407553 38847405 39627376 39987429 

WWWW