[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301252 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-301845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 301252Z - 301845Z

SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES
APPROACHING 1-1.5 INCHES/HOUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE WIDESPREAD EWD ALONG THE RATON MESA INTO THE WRN OK AND NWRN TX
PNHDLS.

CLOSED...MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NWRN NM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TODAY AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
REGIME OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR ABQ EWD ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE INTO THE TX PNHDL WHERE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT /OWING TO
COUPLING OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA AND OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT/ IS OCCURRING. 

SNOW LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LVS TO DHT AS OF 12Z MAY TEND TO
DEVELOP SWD WITH TIME AS THE STRONG ASCENT AND MELTING EFFECTS COOL
VERTICAL COLUMN. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO NERN NM HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5
C/KM OBSERVED IN THE 12Z AMA SOUNDING SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVIER SNOW
BURSTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CO-LOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND
SATURATION OF THAT PORTION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAVORING
DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH.

THROUGH 18Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...POSSIBLY EWD ALONG THE RATON MESA WHERE HOURLY SNOW RATES
COULD APPROACH 1-2 INCHES/HOUR. EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY SNOW TO ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD EWD INTO THE
NRN TX AND OK PNHDLS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SYSTEM SLOWLY SPREADS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

..MEAD.. 01/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

35750593 37020585 38500554 38620460 37870381 37250265
37040144 35990142 35480225 35290442 

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