[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291952 
AZZ000-292215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291952Z - 292215Z

ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT
IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.

THIS AFTERNOON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THROUGH AZ. VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WITH -26 C AT 6 KM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FROM 7.5 TO 8 C/KM. IN ADDITION TO COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE 70+ KT UPPER JET ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING 0-6 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MID LEVEL
UPDRAFT ROTATION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. COLD MID
LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY
STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...OVERALL
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 01/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

33771286 33811151 33810988 32980954 31951051 32501297 

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