[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291843 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-292245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA / SC / NC / VA / WV / EXTREME ERN TN

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 291843Z - 292245Z

LOCALLY HEAVY SLEET / SNOW / FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HOURLY LIQUID RATES OF 0.05 - 0.10 IN.

BAND OF PRECIPITATION NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KY INTO SWRN VA AND
CENTRAL NC IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER AND WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL VA / CENTRAL AND
ERN NC BY 00Z. AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ABOVE
SURFACE INVERSION...PRECIP. TYPE WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OVER
MOST OF WRN AND CENTRAL NC...BUT MAY REMAIN A MIX OVER N-CENTRAL NC
WITHIN CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE WHERE COLD AIR IS DEEPEST. THIS AREA
EXTENDS NWD INTO CENTRAL VA WHERE SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED AS
WELL.  

FARTHER S...SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST WITHIN BROAD WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ALOFT.  ALSO...RUC AND ETA MODELS BOTH INDICATE A
SECONDARY INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION BETWEEN 21-00Z FROM FAR WRN NC
ACROSS NWRN SC AND INTO NERN GA...JUST AHEAD OF DRY SLOT.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR  FREEZING
RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE OVER NRN GA THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

..JEWELL.. 01/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

38908197 38808108 38888033 38617955 38387867 38067806
37237793 36257781 35167821 34347885 34047930 33388019
32918089 32938135 33298226 33368262 33248385 33208447
33868483 34478483 34718438 35088347 35308318 36258302
36508267 37008205 37438189 37878205 38458235 

WWWW