[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291253 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-291900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN TN/ERN AL/NRN AND CNTRL GA/SC/WRN
NC/SWRN VA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN/HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 291253Z - 291900Z

SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH MOD/HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WRN NC/SC. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF AT LEAST 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND
DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA SHOW A VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH ELY
SFC FLOW VEERING TO WLY ALOFT...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KT
NOTED ON 12Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING. THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN AOA 50 KT AS IT SHIFTS EWD OVER KY/ERN TN/GA BY 18Z. THE
MAIN UPPER LOW/VORT MAX IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...NOW OVER THE MO OZARKS. STRONG LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE DAY...BOTH THROUGH DEEP DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AND
THROUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS SLY FLOW TRANSPORTS HIGH THETA-E
AIR OVER THE SUBFREEZING AIRMASS.

SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING GENERALLY EAST OF A
MDQ/ANB/ALX LINE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS AL. HOWEVER...IR IMAGERY INDICATES BANDS OF
CLOUD/PRECIP SO PERIODIC FZRA IS LIKELY ACROSS ECNTRL AL. 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATES CLASSIC FZRA SETUP WITH A DEEP WARM
LAYER /TEMPS AROUND 5C BETWEEN 800-900MB/. THROUGH 18Z ACROSS
GA/SC...FZRA SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS/MACON/AUGUSTA.

MOD/HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR FROM NERN GA INTO
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG AREA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN
NC...WHERE POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC ZONE FAVORING HEAVY
SNOW. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 700-750MB WHICH MAY
SUPPORT MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW.

FZRA WILL BE DOMINANT OVER ERN TN...UNTIL AROUND 16-17Z WHEN A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN MAY OCCUR AS TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 33-35F IN SOME
LOCATIONS. FINALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE FORM OF
SLEET/SNOW ACROSS SWRN VA AND THE NC PIEDMONT BY MID/LATE MORNING.

..TAYLOR.. 01/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...

37258171 36598471 33828697 31978592 31578437 32148240
32718114 34547903 36507814 37067883 37397942 37548057 

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