[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291231 
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-291830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...OH VALLEY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 291231Z - 291830Z

FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING .05 TO .15"/HOUR WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD FROM N-CNTRL/ERN KY INTO SRN OH THIS MORNING.
FARTHER NW...HOURLY SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1"/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/E-CNTRL IL INTO SRN/CNTRL IND THROUGH MID
MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THEREAFTER. 

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WELL-DEFINED
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS SWRN MO...WITH LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE TAKING THIS FEATURE INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY LATER TODAY. PRIMARY DOWNSTREAM REGION OF PRECIPITATION FROM
MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO CNTRL/ERN KY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG SYSTEM
WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG
NOSE OF 40-50 KT LLJ /PER REGIONAL VWPS/. HERE...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
FIELDS INDICATE THAT SURFACE WET BULB FREEZING LINE IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING NEWD WITH MAIN ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING FROM ERN KY
NWD/NWWD INTO SERN IND AND FAR SWRN OH. AS LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND
WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT CORRESPONDING REGION OF
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FORCING TO SHIFT EWD...MAINTAINING PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER ERN KY INTO SRN OH. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN
WITH PRECIPITATION RATES OF .05-.15"/HOUR POSSIBLE.

FARTHER W OVER CNTRL/SRN IL INTO SRN IND...DEFORMATION AXIS/COLD
CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS SLOWLY LIFTED NWD OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW...
WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN OBSERVED OVER E-CNTRL IL INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN
IND. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES OVER WRN/CNTRL KY APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF DRY SLOT RAPIDLY
ADVANCING NEWD INTO REGION. WHILE OVERALL PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING OWING TO WEAKENING OF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCALIZED SNOW BURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW FROM N OF
SLO EWD TO NEAR BMG WHERE A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR.

..MEAD.. 01/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

38788954 39648876 39888535 39848267 39328171 36668281
36688393 38088495 38048820 

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