[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141523 
NCZ000-141630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...ERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 18...

VALID 141523Z - 141630Z

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 18 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 16Z.

MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA INTO
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WHERE IT IS JUST NOW SURGING ACROSS THE LEE
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...MOST VIGOROUS
ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FOCUSED ON PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE/
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW.  THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY 17-18Z.

UNTIL THEN...RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS DIMINISHING.

..KERR.. 01/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

34057790 34937731 35557662 36027628 36387589