[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141205 
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-141330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN NC...ERN VA...SRN MD...SRN DE AND
ADJACENT BAYS/COASTAL WATERS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...18...

VALID 141205Z - 141330Z

ISOLD TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE 12-14Z.

MESOANALYSIS PLACES LOWS VCNTY KRIC IN ECNTRL VA AND ABOUT 30 N OF
KFAY IN CNTRL NC.  EACH LOW WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY EXTREME VALUES
OF STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ERN VA INTO SRN MD/DE THROUGH 14Z.  SLIGHTLY LOWER TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST OVER NERN NC AS THE SECONDARY LOW MIGRATES TOWARDS
KECG.  BUT...SLIGHTLY DRIER POCKET OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS
ADVECTING NWD FROM COASTAL SERN NC...RESULTING IN A MORE STABLE
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 

CORE OF THE STRONGEST H85 JET IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NEWD
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS ADVERTISED BY 09Z RUC.  THIS WILL
TEND TO LESSEN THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
BEGINS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING.  BY THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD
BE MOVING OFFSHORE...OR INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST OF DE...MD...VA...NC.

..RACY.. 01/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...

35647837 38787629 38777418 35527561 

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