[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141554 
FLZ000-141830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141554Z - 141830Z

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  UPPER FORCING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
MID 70S DEW POINTS SHOULD WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENOUGH FOR
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY 18Z.

CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
AND WEST OF THE KEYS...AND MAY AFFECT KEY WEST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.  HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...NEW THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES
ENHANCED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE
MIAMI/FORT LAUDERDALE/PALM BEACH AREAS BY 18-20Z.

LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR SEEM RELATIVELY WEAK.  HOWEVER...MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RISK OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS NEAR MOST INTENSE
CELLS.

..KERR.. 01/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...

24628176 25008131 25448104 26138076 26528069 26758048
26738030 26657999