[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141134 
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-141300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...SERN NY INCLUDING PARTS OF NYC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 17...

VALID 141134Z - 141300Z

ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NJ AND PARTS OF
WRN LONG ISLAND THROUGH 12-13Z...BUT THE THREAT SEEMS TO BE
DECREASING.  WS 17 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE 14Z
EXPIRATION.

THE INSTABILITY AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS
BEEN SHRINKING AS THE SHOWERS APPROACH ERN NJ AND LONG ISLAND. 
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC HAS MAINTAINED A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER EAST.  THUS...SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN...OR...BECOME MORE DETACHED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
TIME.  HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 12-13Z WILL BE
ACROSS ERN NJ AND PERHAPS WRN PARTS OF NYC.

..RACY.. 01/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...

39347551 40507456 41497382 41507307 39307447 

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