[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140736 
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-140930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN NY...EXTREME ERN PA...NJ...DE...NERN
MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140736Z - 140930Z

NARROW BUT PRONOUNCED LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION -- EVIDENT
INITIALLY FROM OTSEGO COUNTY NY SWWD ACROSS ERN PA THROUGH FREDERICK
COUNTY MD -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD 25-30 KT.  ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OCCASIONAL
STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND ACCOMPANYING WIND DAMAGE.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE NARROW PLUME OF NEARLY SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY -- APPROXIMATELY 30-50 NM WIDE -- AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE OVER
DE VALLEY NWD ALMOST TO NJ/NY BORDER.  DESPITE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC...SFC TEMPS LOW-MID 60S F
AND LOW 60S DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPES 200-500 J/KG FROM NRN
MD TO NRN PA/NJ BORDER...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. 
LOWER-THETAE AIR IS ADVECTING OFF ATLANTIC OVER MUCH OF ERN NJ AND
SERN NY.  HOWEVER...SLIGHT VEERING WITH TIME OF PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH WAA TO EXTEND BUOYANT CORRIDOR
NEARLY TO NJ COASTLINE AND NWD INTO SOME OF SERN NY.  THIS IN TURN
WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFT GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO
SFC...POSSIBLY OF DAMAGING INTENSITY.

..EDWARDS.. 01/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

39117725 40007651 41527544 42627494 42697447 42637399
42357366 42087354 41157360 40667378 40277401 39567440
39047486 

WWWW