[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140532 
VAZ000-MDZ000-140700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140532Z - 140700Z

LIMITED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF
SRN / CENTRAL VA.  THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

VERY STRONG WIND FIELD / FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN VA -- AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE / SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL
REGION -- AHEAD OF APPROACHING RAIN / CONVECTIVE BAND. THOUGH MODEL
AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
S CENTRAL VA...PERSISTENT ROTATING STORM SURVIVED NEWD INTO ERN
FRANKLIN CO VA DURING THE PAST HOUR.  THIS INDICATES THAT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXISTS -- AT LEAST INTO SRN
PORTIONS OF VA.

WITH STRONG WIND FIELD IN PLACE AND SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY
INDICATED ENEWD INTO CENTRAL AND SERN VA...IT APPEARS THAT A LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR WW
ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 01/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

37297962 37817926 38347791 38187650 36907668 36557865
36597969 

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