[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140358 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-140500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 14...

VALID 140358Z - 140500Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE ERN HALF OF WW. 
NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS -- REPLACING WW 0014.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS -- AHEAD OF
ADVANCING LINE OF CONVECTION.

ALTHOUGH FEWER ISOLATED / SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EVIDENT ATTM AHEAD OF
MAIN LINE...THE LINE ITSELF HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THE
LINE -- PRIMARILY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INVOF WEAK
SURFACE LOW EVIDENT ON LATEST MESOANALYSIS.

AS THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE LINE SHIFT ENEWD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXPECT AN ISOLATED TORNADO / DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO
CONTINUE GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THIS AREA.  THEREFORE...REPLACEMENT WW
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..GOSS.. 01/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

36088162 36528057 36587915 35567883 32728024 32978183
34118197 

WWWW