[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140709 
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-141315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH/NW INTO CNTRL PA/WRN AND CNTRL NY/NRN VT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 140709Z - 141315Z

PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NY/NWRN PA
OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR POSSIBLE. 

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM MSS/PEO/DSV/HLG/HTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING 10-15 DEGREES WITHIN JUST A FEW MINUTES OF
FROPA...WITH SFC PRESSURE RISES OF 1MB/HR BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN HAS
QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MODERATE SNOW BEING
REPORTED IN NERN OH/WRN NY. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATE
OR EVEN HEAVY SNOW AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH RAPID COOLING OCCURRING
WITHIN THE COLUMN DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND THIS BAND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD
THROUGH 12Z. IN ADDITION...STRONG UVV WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
AS UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. 

POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE MODELING THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WELL...INDICATING A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT BUF BETWEEN
04-05Z WHICH AGREES WITH OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY
SUGGEST ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW ONCE IT
BEGINS...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE LAYER. SATURATED AND DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES WILL FAVOR HEAVIER SNOW RATES...LIKELY AT
LEAST 1 INCH/HR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
ETA/RUC SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO IN THEIR DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION
RATES. 

SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN NERN OH/EXTREME NWRN PA AND WRN NY NEAR
LAKE ERIE. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AT LOCATIONS
NEAR BFD/PEO...AND IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS NEAR UCA/BGM AND AFTER 10Z
ACROSS NRN VT.

..TAYLOR.. 01/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

45047462 42628035 41878075 40308079 40187971 41617578
43447331 44957171 45067324 

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