[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061731 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-062300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...NRN VT...NH...ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 061731Z - 062300Z

MDT TO OCNL HVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
AND PARTS OF NERN NY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WHILE THE BAND OF
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD MAKE STEADY NEWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION...A
FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CORE OF THE BAND COULD EXPERIENCE SNOWFALL
RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR FOR UP TO 3 HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES MAY
APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR FOR A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND. HOWEVER...WARMER MID LEVEL AIRMASS INFILTRATING PARTS OF
ERN NY AND SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND MAY RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET
AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DEPARTS SWRN SECTIONS OF THIS MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION AREA...SEE UPCOMING MCD 0039 FOR MORE INFO ON MIXED
WINTER PRECIPITATION.

PROGRESSIVE CYCLONE OF MODEST INTENSITY WILL DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE
ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER
JET COUPLING MOVING FROM WRN NEW YORK TO NRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE ZONE OF STRONG
LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP SURFACE-BASED COLD
DOME. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THIS ZONE OF ASCENT
WITH BUF AND PIT MORNING RAOBS INDICATING PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH.
MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND LIFT WILL INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW
CRYSTAL GROWTH THROUGH VAPOR DEPOSITION AND AGGREGATION WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING IN A NW-SE ARC FROM NERN NY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
VT TO NH. THIS BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD TRANSITION ENEWD
ACROSS NH AND MAINE THROUGH EVENING AS STRONGEST FORCING DEVELOPS
ENEWD. GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONGEST UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WAS BEING INDICATED IN ETA POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS ERN NY AND MUCH OF VT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND
SLEET...OR EVEN A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET...ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION
BEFORE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES THESE AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 01/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

44226905 43467080 44187201 44657317 44587362 44217376
44087407 44177443 44357471 44487482 44727497 44907503
45137467 45177386 45247237 45587096 46317017 46336876
45856779 45026755 44646744 

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