[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061310 
MIZ000-061745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 061310Z - 061745Z

MDT/OCNLY HVY SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI
THIS MORNING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS DURATION.

ON NRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE NEARING SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WSR-88D
VOLUMETRIC DATA/SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICT DEFORMATION AXIS WITH
EMBEDDED BANDS OF MDT/PERIODICALLY HVY SNOW TRANSITIONING FROM ERN
WI INTO LOWER MI. AS THIS EWD TREND CONTINUES...12Z APX RAOB/09Z RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER FOR SNOW GROWTH
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLANDS/SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB
REGION OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 15Z-18Z. FURTHERMORE...RUC BASED
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY PER NEGATIVE
DTHETA-E/DZ IN 500-700 MB LAYER ACROSS CNTRL MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.
COMBINED WITH 15:1 OR GREATER SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS...SNOW
RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION
THIS MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE 18Z AS
CYCLONE/ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION BAND MOVES NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO.

..GUYER.. 01/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

45288348 44678345 44378363 44078347 43868320 43378396
43218482 43388621 43888649 44758613 45338516 

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