[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061739 
MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-062345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO SRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 061739Z - 062345Z

A NWD SHIFT OF FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE
HUDSON VALLEY INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH
0.15-0.25 INCH/HOUR AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AS OF 17Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
LAKE ERIE WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WRN PA
INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION. FARTHER NE...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
NEW BRUNSWICK/NOVA SCOTIA IS MAINTAINING FEED OF COLDER...DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NE WITH 17Z FREEZING
WET BULB ZERO /WBZ/ LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY 20 NE IPT TO 30 N JFK TO
NEAR EWB. CURRENT VWPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS N OF THIS LINE
INDICATE THAT 35-45 KT SWLY LLJ AT 1-1.5 KM AGL IS CONTRIBUTING TO
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING VIA WAA WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN
OCCURRING OVER SRN NY INTO WRN CT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT
THIS FREEZING RAIN CORRIDOR EXTENDS ROUGHLY 60-90 N OF WBZ
LINE...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO SLEET NEAR ALB...AND FINALLY SNOW
FROM GFL EWD ACROSS NRN MA INTO SRN PORTIONS OF VT/NH.

PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ALLOW FOR NWD MOVEMENT OF WBZ LINE
APPROXIMATELY 50-60 MILES BY 21-22Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST FREEZING
RAIN CONTINUING OVER ERN NY GENERALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ALB
SWD TO POU AND THEN EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MA WHERE HOURLY LIQUID
AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 0.10-0.20 INCH. EXPECT A NARROW SWATH OF
SLEET N OF THIS AREA...PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING INTO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NERN NY
INTO NRN VT/NH.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS ANTICIPATED HEAVIER
SNOW...PLEASE SEE MCD 0038.

..MEAD.. 01/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

41917001 41387157 41087386 41647556 42087672 42847708
43847519 43957348 43257011 

WWWW