[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061301 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-061800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA/NRN NJ AND CNTRL/ERN NY INTO SRN NH/SRN VT
AND MA/CT/RI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 061301Z - 061800Z

FZRA/SLEET EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NCNTRL/NE PA AND
SRN NY/NRN NJ INTO CT...WITH 0.05-0.10 IN/HR RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICE GLAZE. SNOW EXPECTED TO YIELD TO FZRA/SLEET ACROSS
MA/CNTRL NY THROUGH 18Z.

WV/IR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS ATTENDANT 1002 MB SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS SE
OH. AHEAD OF THIS CYCLONE...WARM CONVEYOR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WITH PERSISTENT
CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SRN NY/NRN PA
AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.

AS STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/UVVS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND MID LEVEL
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO OVERRIDE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY
LAYER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FZRA
AND/OR SLEET ACROSS NCNTRL/NE PA AND SRN NY/NRN NJ/CT THROUGH 18Z.
FURTHER N/E...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN ACCORDANCE WITH 09Z RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST SNOW ACROSS CNTRL
NY INTO MA WILL PROGRESSIVELY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN PRIOR TO 18Z AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER LEADS TO PARTIAL/COMPLETE
MELTING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIGHT/MDT
SNOW FROM NE NY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN VT/SRN NH...AS
EVIDENT IN COLD PROFILE SEEN IN 12Z ALB RAOB. OTHERWISE...
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH/CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/DZ ACROSS SW
NY/NCNTRL PA BY 18Z AS LOW LEVEL PROFILES WARM/DRY SLOT APPROACHES.

..GUYER.. 01/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

43957389 43097139 42717082 41797089 41537183 40967430
41337625 41537756 42257801 43517776 44257614 

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