[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060600 
NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-061100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL PA AND SRN NY/NRN NJ INTO WRN CT/WRN NH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 060600Z - 061100Z

FZRA/SLEET EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PA INTO EXTREME SRN
NY OVERNIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OWING TO
HOURLY RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN. FURTHER NORTH...SLEET TO DEVELOP FROM
SCNTRL NY EWD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHILE SNOW REMAINS
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF CNTRL NY.

WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY WARM CONVEYOR
CONTINUING TO SURGE NEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN/CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER TROUGH.
ACCORDINGLY 800-850 MB WARM LAYER -- AS EVIDENT IN 00Z PIT RAOB --
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. AT
06Z...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NRN PA ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF I-80...IN ADDITION TO APPALACHIAN REGION OF CNTRL PA.

AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR INCREASES ABOVE THIS SHALLOW /1 KM OR LESS PER
ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN WSR-88D VADS/ COLD BOUNDARY LAYER...FZRA/SLEET
EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PA INTO FAR SRN NY. IN
ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...21Z SREF/03Z RUC PRECIP TYPE
ALGORITHMS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO WITH DEPICTION THAT FZRA
AND/OR SLEET WILL EXPAND NNEWD ACROSS NRN PA INTO FAR SE NY/NRN NJ
THROUGH 12Z.

..GUYER.. 01/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

42667447 42287285 41157301 40597342 40507565 40667689
40847876 41387951 42247957 42797869 42867626 

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