[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051744 
IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-052345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN KS...SERN NEB...IA...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 051744Z - 052345Z

SNOW...OCCASIONALLY FALLING AT RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN A BROAD ARC FROM EXTREME
NWRN KS ACROSS MUCH OF IA. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF MDT TO HVY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL TO NERN KS...EXPANDING INTO NWRN MO THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. WV IMAGERY AND LATEST SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA INDICATED THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WAS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD WITH ONE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO WRN IA AND ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING NEWD FROM WRN KS. WITH THE
LARGE SCALE TROUGH EJECTING PIECEMEAL FROM THE ROCKIES...SEVERAL
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS APPEARS IN RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM ERN CO NEWD TO NWRN IA. VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW
MOVING NEWD FROM NWRN KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE UPWARD MOTION
ALONG THIS AXIS AS DPVA DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN KS AND
SRN NEB NEXT FEW HOURS. MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BANDS ACROSS IA HAVE
BEEN INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF ANOTHER VORT LOBE MOVING EAST FROM ERN
NEB. EXPECT MORE FAVORABLE SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF
POLAR JET TO GRADUALLY WANE ACROSS THIS REGION NEXT COUPLE HOURS
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER LIFT MOVES NEWD ACROSS IA FROM
KS/NEB IMPULSE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS
OF MDT TO HVY SNOW WITH STRONG ASCENT OCCURRING WITHIN SATURATED MID
LEVEL AIRMASS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE.

A SMALLER SCALE DEFORMATION ZONE...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
INTO THE PRIMARY COMMA-HEAD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING
CYCLONE...APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FROM CNTRL TO NERN KS AT THIS
TIME. INCREASING MESOSCALE ASCENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. COUPLED WITH DRAMATIC ADIABATIC COOLING AND PROXIMITY OF
GREATER MOISTURE WITHIN LARGE SCALE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...AN
EXPANDING AREA OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
AND NERN KS...AND PERHAPS INTO WRN MO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOWBURSTS WITHIN THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SNOWFALL
RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 06/00Z.

..CARBIN.. 01/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

38619821 38399872 38169961 38620104 39730196 41080050
42639731 43399484 43589379 43279216 42339130 40619280
40159331 39439398 37979523 37879588 38149616 38499657
38749678 38959720 38829775 

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