[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051757 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-060000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL/IND/OH POSSIBLY INTO PA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 051757Z - 060000Z

CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL IND/OH...AND
POSSIBLY INTO PA. HOURLY RATES OF .05 TO .10 INCH/HOUR WILL BE
COMMON WILL LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING .15 TO .20 INCH/HOUR.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRANSLATES ENEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO
VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...ATTENDANT SURFACE/850 MB LOWS WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING
DOWNSTREAM BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/JUST N OF THE OH RIVER. HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PERSISTENT WAA ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT WSWLY LLJ AXIS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD N OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
OH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SYNTHESIS OF CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND PLAN VIEW THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST FROM NEAR CMI EWD TO MIE TO MFD WHERE .05
TO .10 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL BE COMMON. SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXING
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW...WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF IND/OH. DIRECT MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS ARISING FROM THE
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NARROW W-E
ORIENTED PRECIPITATION BANDS WHERE HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES MAY
APPROACH .15-.20 INCH/HOUR.

..MEAD.. 01/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

40438899 41198876 41828533 41938252 41787975 41487712
40737722 40418167 40008825 

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