[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051315 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-051745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/ERN KS/NRN MO AND NW/WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 

VALID 051315Z - 051745Z

SIGNIFICANT FZRA/SLEET TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN SW-NE ORIENTED
CORRIDOR FROM NRN OK/ERN KS INTO NRN MO AND NW/WCNTRL IL. HOURLY
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10 IN WILL BE COMMON...WITH 0.20-0.25 IN/HR RATES
POSSIBLE WITHIN EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

LATEST WV IMAGERY/SRN PLAINS PROFILERS PORTRAY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ADVANCING ENEWD FROM NM INTO NW TX...WITH IR
IMAGERY DEPICTING COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM FAR ERN KS INTO IL EARLY
THIS MORNING. AMIDST STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION...WARM AIR CONTINUES TO OVERRIDE SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS -- APPROX DEPTH OF 1-1.5 KM OR LESS FROM NRN OK INTO NW IL
PER REGIONAL WIND PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS/12Z RAOBS. 09Z RUC/06Z ETA
PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LITTLE FLUCTUATION
IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THROUGH THE MORNING...SUGGESTING
FZRA/SLEET WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT IN A 150 MILE CORRIDOR FROM NRN
OK INTO NRN MO/NW IL THROUGH 18Z.  

IN ADDITION TO STRONG BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING
THE REGION...WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PER REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN/NRN OK.

..GUYER.. 01/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

40759145 41059031 39729005 39249173 38619279 37459407
36739550 35339807 35939881 36919838 39709494 40479283 

WWWW