[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051251 
PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-051715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL AND NRN IN/NRN OH INTO NW PA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 051251Z - 051715Z

CORRIDOR OF FZRA/SLEET TO EXPAND/INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM
NRN/CNTRL IL AND NRN IN INTO NRN OH/NW PA...WITH HOURLY
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10 IN POSSIBLE.

BROAD WARM CONVEYOR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NEWD THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SRN
ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS
STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS IL/IN/OH. AS BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND PRECIP RATES
INCREASE...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
FZRA AND/OR SLEET FROM NRN/CNTRL IL AND NRN IN INTO NRN OH/NW PA.

12Z ILX/PIT RAOBS DEPICT +4C WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND 1.5 KM/825
MB...INDICATIVE OF FZRA POTENTIAL IN AREAS WHERE SHALLOW COLD
BOUNDARY LAYER IS AND/OR BECOMES SUB-FREEZING. PER 06Z ETA/09Z RUC
GUIDANCE...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION OF THERMAL FIELDS THIS MORNING WILL
SUPPORT FZRA AND/OR SLEET FROM NRN/CNTRL IL INTO NW PA THROUGH 18Z.
AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CONSIDERABLE ICE
ACCUMULATION...ROUGHLY 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A PIA-FWA-FDY-FKL
AXIS.

..GUYER.. 01/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

41797971 41377918 40837964 40548294 39998610 39968822
39968999 41119035 41738938 41848823 41498741 41648470
41318226 

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