[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030102 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-030500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN OK...MUCH OF KS...FAR SCENTRAL/SERN
NEB...SCENTRAL/SERN  IA AND NCENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 

VALID 030102Z - 030500Z

FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NCNTRL
MO...SCNTRL/SERN IA THROUGH 05Z...WITH LIGHT TO MDT FREEZING RAIN
MIXED WITH SLEET DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CURRENT SFC WET-BULB
FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN OK PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN OK NEWD
TO THE KC METRO AREA DURING THE 02Z-06Z TIME FRAME. HRLY
ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 0.05 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A DEVELOPING LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT
PRECIPITATION OVER ECENTRAL/NERN NM AHEAD OF EJECTING CENTRAL NM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD...LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/DEEP GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH OF
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN/CENTRAL
OK...AIDED BY BACKED FLOW IN THE 850 MB LAYER EVIDENT REGIONAL VWP/S
AND PROFILER DATA...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT NWD FROM WRN OK INTO MUCH OF KS. HOWEVER...VRY DRY AIR
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS SEEN ON THE 00Z DDC/TOP SOUNDING WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE STEADIER/MDT PRECIPITATION RATES CAN
DEVELOP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE THIS OCCUR THROUGH 04Z WILL BE
FROM SWRN KS ENEWD INTO NCENTRAL KS/FAR SCENTRAL NEB WHERE STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DUE TO AN INCREASING DEFORMATION OF
THE PREEXISTING MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OCCURS. AS PRECIPITATION
OCCURS IN THIS BAND...IT IS LIKELY TO START OUT AS SLEET DUE TO THE
DEPTH OF THE DRY LAYER BELOW THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCED LAYER. BUT
AS SATURATION OCCURS...DEPTH OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER /100 MB/
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF W-E BANDS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THIS
REGION BETWEEN 04-06Z. OTHERWISE...FORCING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL LIKELY BE BELOW DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER INITIALLY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT
INITIAL SLEET FALL. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT CURRENT FALLING TRENDS IN
DEWPTS ALONG WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF COLD AIRMASS AND WET BULB
EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION...THAT THE FREEZING LINE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
THROUGH 06Z.

FARTHER NE...AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN KS
CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE ACROSS MO...ELEVATED WAA/LIFT COMBINED  WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MDT
FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS
NCENTRAL MO INTO SCENTRAL/SERN IA.

..CROSBIE.. 01/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

39970040 38240142 37020074 36759969 36809881 37219777
38459579 39419447 39969292 40219184 40969139 41249326
40599659 

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