[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030521 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-030945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF E CENTRAL / NRN KS...SERN NEBRASKA...NWRN
MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 030521Z - 030945Z

FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF KS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING
NEWD INTO SERN NEBRASKA AND NWRN MO.  HRLY RATES OF 0.05-0.10 WILL
BE LIKELY...WITH HEAVIER RATES LOCALLY UP TO 0.25 IN.

PERSISTENT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY BRINGING WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS NWD INTO KS...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING NW
OF A ICT TO EMP TO TOP LINE.  MODELS INDICATE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH FORCING STRONGEST OVER
E CENTRAL KS IN THE SLN/EMP/EWK VICINITY.  CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER S CENTRAL KS...AND SEEMS TO BE
CORRELATED WELL WITH RUC 850 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.  

EXPECT HRLY PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0.10
IN/HR...WITH STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING UP TO 0.25 IN/HR FZRA RATES
OVER E CENTRAL KS.  FARTHER N...FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10
IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY INTO NRN KS AND SERN NEBRASKA WHERE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY DECREASES.

FORCING WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO NRN MO WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
TO SWLY.

..JEWELL.. 01/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

40709581 40289514 40139460 39789424 39589438 39279487
39049560 38339588 37959637 37639742 37369852 38259893
38759980 39499982 40169932 40569826 40889716 

WWWW