[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020608 
MIZ000-WIZ000-021015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI / UP OF MI / CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 020608Z - 021015Z

SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER NRN LOWER
MI...EXTREME NERN WI...AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL UP OF MI.  HOURLY
PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05 - 0.15 IN WILL BE LIKELY.  SLEET MIXED
WITH SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE OVER THE UP OF MI...WITH
HRLY ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1.00 IN.

BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FEED MOISTURE NWD. 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FREEZING LINE IS MOVING NWD WITH AXIS
OF WARM AIR ACROSS ERN WI / LAKE MICHIGAN.  AS A RESULT...DURATION
OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SHORT AROUND GREEN BAY WI...SEWD INTO
MUSKEGON MI. THE HEAVIEST ICING WILL BE FARTHER N WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S F WILL ALLOW FOR LONGER
DURATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL INCREASE
PRECIPITATION RATES LOCALLY WITH HRLY RATES AROUND 0.15 IN.

..JEWELL.. 01/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...

44028371 43868395 43648359 44038292 43728267 42998248
42458385 42498452 43048525 43358573 43668620 44058653
44818745 44868829 44718874 45938896 46978916 47528791
46838518 46538420 46088400 45228327 44428323 

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