[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 020053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020053 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-020600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ND...NRN MN...FAR NWRN WI/WRN U.P OF MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 020053Z - 020600Z

HVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVER FAR NERN ND...NWRN MN THROUGH
03Z...WHILE DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS FAR NWRN WI AND THE WRN U.P OF MI
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. HRLY ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NERN MN/FAR NWRN WI/WRN
U.P OF MI REGION WHERE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR.

LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NNEWD ACROSS ERN SD/SERN ND. AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT W-E ORIENTED HVY SNOW BANDS ACROSS NRN MN AND FAR NERN ND
FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS BEFORE VERTICAL MOTION DIMINISHES RAPIDLY WITH
NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE DRY SLOT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NERN MN/FAR
NWRN WI...STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT HVY
SNOWFALL EWD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S WILL SUPPORT 20:1 SNOW/WATER RATIOS. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 LAYER SUPPORTING
A DEEP AGGREGATE ZONE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT
IN HRLY SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH EWD INTO THE FAR WRN U.P.
OF MI. AS THE UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD...HVY SNOW SHOULD
END OVER NERN MN/FAR NWRN WI BETWEEN 03-06Z AND OVER THE WRN U.P. OF
MI SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

..CROSBIE.. 01/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...FGF...

48489304 48979540 49079899 48049916 47889719 47809540
46579297 46369199 46109029 46388914 47038828 47438778
47958946 

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