[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271808 
FLZ000-272015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41...

VALID 271808Z - 272015Z

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL FL.

A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE PALM BEACH AREA
WWD TO N OF PUNTA GORDA AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING
SLOWLY NWD. WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS
PROMOTE SURFACE HEATING. DESPITE HEATING AND INFLUX OF RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
MLCAPE TO AOB 800 J/KG. TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
WRN END OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY LONGER AS
THEY MOVE INLAND...AND ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN CELLS
CONTAINING LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS WARM SECTOR PROVIDING INFLOW TO THE STORMS DESTABILIZES.
THE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO INITIALLY LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND DEGREE OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY PRESENT IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 02/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

27178065 26748161 26398268 27538270 28648272 28878218
29168147 29428062 28248058 

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