[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272129 
FLZ000-272300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41...

VALID 272129Z - 272300Z

THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
E CNTRL FL. HOWEVER...THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOWARD EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE
TO TRAIN ALONG AN ENE-WSW ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM NEAR MELBOURNE TO
ABOUT 40 MILES S OF TAMPA AND WWD INTO THE ERN GULF. DESPITE SURFACE
HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INFLUX OF WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR...INSTABILITY AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOREOVER THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEGUN TO
VEER...ESPECIALLY OVER W CNTRL FL AS PRIMARY LOW MOVES EWD TOWARD
NRN FL AND STRONGER WLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE MIXES DOWN. THIS WILL
TEND TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE WRN PART OF THE LINE WHERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND. STRONGEST SHEAR...CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST TORNADO
THREAT NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE LINE
WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST. THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
VEER... SURFACE HEATING SUBSIDES...AND STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

..DIAL.. 02/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

27138064 26588192 26428263 27338269 28168264 28578241
29078143 29158062 

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