[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271752 
MIZ000-WIZ000-272145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...U.P OF MI AND NERN WI

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 271752Z - 272145Z

MOD-HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO END
ACROSS THE WRN U.P OF MI AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH 21Z.
FARTHER EAST...MOD-HVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.P OF MI
AND NERN WI THROUGH 22Z AND THE ERN U.P OF MI BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THE
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HVY SNOW RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH FOR
MORE THAN 2 HOURS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL U.P OF MI
THROUGH 22Z.

STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT BY CONCENTRATED SFC PRESSURE
FALLS AND RAPIDLY MOVING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/NRN
WI. RECENT WARMING TRENDS IN IR SAT IMAGERY AND INCREASINGLY
CONFLUENT FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS DUE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUPPORT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...THE POTENTIAL OF HVY SNOW RATES ABOVE 1
INCH/HR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.  IN ADDITION...A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM  SFC-850 MB
SUPPORTED BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN SIDE OF A ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
OVER THE ERN GRT LAKES WILL LIMIT A RAPID PROGRESSION OF MOD/HVY
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOD MID LEVEL VERTICAL
MOTION WILL SUPPORT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HVY SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL U.P OF MI THROUGH 22Z. SNOW-LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATIOS FROM
15-20:1 WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR IN
AREAS WITH VSBY AROUND 1/2 MI. NEGATIVE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE WAKE
OF A 700-500 MB TROUGH WILL AID IN A RAPID DEMISE OF MOD-HVY SNOW
OVER THE WRN U.P OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CROSBIE.. 02/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

46678498 45898592 45718658 44508757 44208869 44608938
46198923 46948793 

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